The Gun Trade Association (GTA) has raised concerns over the consistency and clarity of national police firearms licensing data, following an independent review commissioned earlier this month.
The review, conducted by TDC Research and funded by the Shooting Industry Fund, examined performance data published by the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) covering the first three quarters of the 2025/26 reporting period.
In a letter addressed to Deputy Chief Constable David Gardner (above), national firearms licensing lead at the College of Policing, the GTA outlined three key challenges that it believes limit the comparability and reliability of the data.
The first issue relates to how headline figures are presented for quarters one and two. According to the GTA, summary tables showing the percentage of applications completed within four months may give the impression that performance is higher than it is in practice. The association argues that, without careful reference to accompanying guidance notes, readers may incorrectly assume the percentage applies to all applications received, rather than a subset of cases both received and completed within a 12-month period.
The second concern centres on a change in methodology between reporting periods. The GTA states that data in quarters one and two is based on applications both received and completed within the previous 12 months, while quarter three shifts to counting all applications completed in that timeframe, regardless of when they were received. The association warns that this change has not been explicitly explained and makes direct comparisons across quarters unreliable.
A third issue highlighted in the review is a lack of clarity around the reporting periods themselves. The published reports reference extraction dates rather than clearly defined quarterly timeframes, making it difficult to determine whether datasets overlap or align with standard reporting periods.
In response, the GTA has set out a series of recommendations aimed at improving transparency and comparability. These include clearer labelling of headline tables, the inclusion of multiple performance measures to reflect different datasets, and the publication of precise date ranges for each reporting period.
The association has also called for a review of how quarterly data is structured to ensure that each dataset reflects a distinct three-month period without overlap.
In the letter, Stephen Jolly, GTA chief executive, stated that the organisation and TDC Research are willing to work with the NPCC to improve future reporting standards, ensuring the data is trusted The GTA has also requested an update on the inclusion of Scottish firearms licensing data in future reports, following a commitment made at a Home Office Firearms Licensing Liaison Group meeting in November 2025. At the time of writing, no formal response from the NPCC or the College of Policing had been received.