As a ballistician I am often asked what new developments are taking place in terms of ammunition for precision rifle shooting. Both hunters and target shooters are keen to squeeze out every last drop of precision potential from their systems. Even the home loader will keep an eye out for new components which may give them an edge over their fellow shooters. So what can we expect to see in 2026 and beyond?
One of the biggest changes we will see may go largely unnoticed. That will be propellant, which has seen some supply bottlenecks over the last three years. The cotton used to manufacture nitrocellulose propellants has been in short supply as the vast majority comes from China. We cannot realistically expect that to change in the near future given current world politics. Luckily, propellant manufacturers have been hard at work in R&D departments, working with materials which can be grown in Europe. The hemp plant is one viable alternative as it grows quickly, easily and produces very consistent fibre. Granted, this will not lead to any huge performance gains but it will bring consistency. The ability to consistently acquire propellant which fluctuates very little from lot to lot is no small matter for the experienced shooter.
We may also see more hybrid cases enter the sporting market. These have been generating interest in the defence market for some time now. They can certainly offer a weight saving but I do not think that will necessarily win over any sports shooters. They could, in theory, produce more consistent velocities due to the higher internal geometric tolerances. This remains to be seen. They can also withhold more pressure, which is the main point of interest from the defence market’s point of view – more pressure = more velocity. Unfortunately, it also means an upgraded weapon system and a shorter barrel life. For some high level competitive sports shooters, this will be an attractive proposition if their discipline allows it.
However, you never get something for nothing. The upgraded higher pressure system will be heavier. What you gain in velocity you will lose in manoeuvrability. The last trick in the hybrid case toolkit is reduced heating of the chamber/bore dependant on case material. I have experienced this in real time firing some hybrid cases through a machine gun. 100 rounds in quick time would normally generate enough heat to roast a probing finger. I tentatively put my little finger into the chamber and it was just lukewarm. The cases do this as they are poorer thermal conductors than standard brass. The heat from the propellant burning inside is not rapidly transferred through the case wall and into the chamber. This would be a benefit for those shooting relatively high volume, as heat can cause POI shift and of course mirage.
The biggest downside to hybrid cases for sports shooters is that currently none are reloadable. This would make them an expensive option, lacking the fine tuning that many competitive shooters require from their own loads.
We will continue to see green primers phasing in as concerns grow about liability, health and safety. Green primers previously had a reputation for being unreliable. That may have been true during the early stages of their development. Now they are very common in the defence space, mainly due to the volume of training that occurs on indoor ranges. We see no difference in performance or reliable function. This may not produce any direct performance benefit but long term it may aid the shooter’s performance. You cannot shoot well from a hospital bed! I would really hope to see primers become more widely available and for prices to drop from their currently outrageous point. We may be waiting some time for that to occur!
Lastly, we arrive at the part most people will be focused on – the projectile. We will continue to see monolithic projectiles entering the market due to the lead ban (although many ranges will still allow lead due to their encapsulation procedures). The biggest plus for increased monolithic demand will be economy of scale. We will hopefully see them become more affordable. Monolithics are more expensive to manufacture, especially in lower volumes but they can generally be made to higher tolerances than their lead core, copper jacket counterparts.
If you are really pushing the BC envelope you will have noted that monolithics lack the density of lead. This means at higher weights they can be overly long for some common barrel twists. A 185gn monolithic may well demonstrate considerable yaw or even tumble completely when fired from a 1:12 twist barrel. This would mean you need to re-barrel with a tighter twist or scale back on grain weight.
Hunters have their own set of requirements when it comes to projectiles. The first generation of monolithics did not lend themselves well to smaller species. Solid copper or brass is much less malleable than lead with a thin copper jacket around it. That meant that consistent deformity was not always a given. This could lead to unethical wounds and requirements to track and make a follow up shot. Luckily, the R&D departments caught on pretty fast. We are now blessed with a number of options which are lead free but produce consistent wound cavities. Again, I would hope to see prices reduce as consumption of lead free variants increases (hope being the operative word).
Lastly, we arrive at calibre. There will always be new and exotic calibres. I don’t expect any to be groundbreaking. Swapping calibres is always going to be a game of trade-offs. It shoots faster and flatter but you get half the barrel life. This becomes an individual choice. If you do not require the bleeding edge of performance to win a competition then you will no doubt choose something with longevity. I still shoot and absolutely love the .308 Winchester. Equally, I enjoy running some rounds through a .300 Norma, I just don’t enjoy the cost of a new barrel every other year.
Given the cost of shooting and the increased cost of living for most of us I would predict that .22 LR becomes increasingly popular. Certainly, the PRS style scene in .22 LR is flourishing. It is great fun, good training and does not require a massive amount of land. Once a rifle is purchased the ammunition is relatively cheap.
I predict we will see more innovation in the .22 LR marketplace than any of the centrefire calibres. Innovation occurs in areas that are growing and have money coming in. The centrefire PRS scene also represents a highly innovative area due to its popularity, hence why we see so much in the 6mm range of cartridges. But at some point physics places a hard stop on innovation and it is up to the astute customer to decide whether they are purchasing a performance increase or a marketing piece.