While ministers have not yet published the consultation, the indication that every shotgun may in future require individual “good reason” has already created deep concern among the trade.
Across the sector, the message is consistent: the impact of such a change would be substantial and far-reaching. The four articles in this special section outline the implications from different parts of the trade, reflecting the breadth of professional opinion now focused on this proposal.
For Edward King, GTA council member and managing director of ASI, the consequences for certificate holders and the trade would be profound. King highlights that many shooters own several shotguns for legitimate reasons, from sporting use to seasonal variation and collecting. Requiring individual justification for each gun could lead many to dispose of long-held collections at renewal. He also warns that retailers would struggle to absorb sudden influxes of stock from customers obliged to reduce their holdings.
King notes that shotguns account for a major proportion of retail turnover, and that the GTA’s initial survey data suggests potential losses approaching £1 billion. He argues that licensing departments, already under pressure, would face workloads they could not realistically manage, leading to delays that would further deter customers.
The broader implications for the supply chain are set out by GTA executive director Stephen Jolly. He stresses that the current split between firearms and shotguns reflects the fundamentally different nature of the two categories. Jolly warns that a shift to individual justification for every shotgun could remove the flexibility on which much of the trade depends. He cites provisional analysis suggesting an overall economic impact approaching £2 billion once associated activity at shooting grounds and within rural businesses is included.
Jolly also argues that the proposal stems not from failures within the shotgun certificate system itself but from wider issues in police licensing. He points to the small number of high-profile incidents involving violence-fixated individuals and says the evidence shows no rise in gun crime linked to certificate holders. From his perspective, the consultation must address police capability and consistency rather than impose new burdens on lawful owners.
A similar concern arises in the article by Jeremy Hinde, secretary of the British Shooting Sports Council. Examining the latest NPCC figures, Hinde notes the ongoing decline in certificate holders and the significant variation in performance between forces. Long delays for grants and renewals, he argues, undermine confidence in the licensing system and place further strain on both shooters and the trade. Only a small number of forces have shown recent improvement despite the introduction of a new charging structure intended to support service enhancement.
Hinde identifies two priorities for the months ahead: scrutinising the NPCC data to understand where pressure points lie, and preparing an evidence-based response to the Government’s consultation. While he acknowledges the opportunity for constructive reform, he also highlights the risk that Section 2 may be drawn closer to the more restrictive Section 1 regime, with potential consequences for participation and trade viability.
To support retailers and shooting businesses in understanding the process, this section also includes a detailed explainer on how Government consultations operate. This outlines the stages from publication to parliamentary consideration, the legal requirements imposed by the Gunning principles, and the importance of clear evidence in shaping outcomes. With the consultation period expected to be limited to ten weeks, and with the possibility of a January start to avoid the Christmas period, preparation will be critical.
The consultation marks the decisive stage at which the trade can present clear information about the operational and economic impact of alignment. Although the Government holds a large parliamentary majority, which could enable it to progress legislation if it chooses to do so, the quality and volume of submissions will be an important factor in how the Home Office assesses the proposal.
Across the industry, the central themes emerging from these contributions are consistency, evidence and unity. Organisations are already gathering data, co-ordinating with members and preparing material to help businesses engage effectively. For retailers, grounds, distributors and certificate holders, the consultation offers a direct opportunity to ensure their experience is represented accurately.
As the articles in this special section show, the months ahead will be pivotal for the licensing framework and for the future of the trade.
The consultation will be the point at which the Home Office must listen. The industry’s task is to ensure that what it hears is clear, detailed and grounded in the realities of day-to-day business.