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3 mins

THE LOOMING CRISIS IN FIREARMS LICENSING

Firearms licensing attracts little mainstream attention, yet within the trade it has become a growing point of pressure. In this introductory piece, Chris Downes – former national firearms licensing subject matter expert for the College of Policing and previously firearms licensing manager for the Metropolitan Police – outlines the trends, challenges and concerns now shaping the system.

I suspect I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know or feel but it’s worth saying plainly - the system has lost sight of its purpose.

The regime should be based on evidence and have public safety and the provision of a service at its core. These seem to have slipped down the priority list and the result is a process that frustrates increasingly more and more people.

To be clear, this isn’t about blaming individuals. There are plenty of dedicated people working hard but when you’ve got 43 forces doing things 43 (sometimes 48) different ways and an absence of meaningful accountability, it’s no surprise we’ve ended up here.

MY EXPERIENCE

I’ve seen this from the perspective of the Tactical Lead of a major Metropolitan Force, national expert and now independent advisor. My introduction to firearms licensing came about seven years ago when I led an armed response to the theft of several guns from a certificate holder. Afterwards, I started asking questions and what I found was a system that felt outdated, inconsistent, and frankly unfit for purpose.

But it started a fascination that led me to spend five years as London’s Firearms Licensing Manager, then become the National Subject Matter Expert at the College of Policing. I pushed for better training, clearer guidance, and fairer outcomes. But over time, I realised that raising concerns from within the system wasn’t enough. So, in July, I left policing and launched FirearmsLicensing.net. This is a platform to support certificate holders, trade professionals and organisations navigating the licensing maze.

SO, WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?

There’s a lot to unpack, and I’ll be doing just that in future articles. But here are a few headlines about the change over the past 5 years:

• Revocations have doubled and are now at the highest rate since records began.

• Refusals of new applications have doubled.

• Renewal refusals have risen fivefold.

We’ve lost 65,909 shotgun certificate holders and 10,727 firearm certificate holders in five years (More than the total population of Aylesbury).

Out of 130,000 applications received 40,000 people are currently waiting over a year to be processed.

In the last three months, only 4 out of 43 forces showed any improvement in productivity and the number of completed applications across the UK has dropped by 10%.

And that’s just the start.

The figures released by the National Police Chiefs’ Council are hard to interpret and risk misleading the community. The Home Office statistics show a rapid increase in revocations and refusals and steady decline in certificate holders. And behind every number is a person waiting, worrying, and wondering what’s gone wrong.

WHAT’S NEXT?

This is the first in a regular series where I’ll be digging into the data, sharing real stories, and exposing the gaps between policy and practice. I’ll also be inviting you to help shape what comes next.

This isn’t just a column. It’s more of a conversation. Tell me what’s broken, what’s baffling, and what needs fixing

Whether you’re a certificate holder, dealer or someone who’s just trying to make sense of it all I want to hear from you.

Real change has to start somewhere, and it needs to start now.

GET IN TOUCH

info@FirearmsLicensing.net

This article appears in December 2025

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This article appears in...
December 2025
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