TRUMP TARIFFS BRING UNCERTAINTY TO UK MARKET

Sweeping trade tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump during his second term in office have sent shockwaves through the firearms trade. The measures include duties of up to 145 percent on Chinese goods and a blanket 10 percent tariff on imports from most other countries, with a temporary 90-day suspension granted to selected nations.

While the Trump administration claims these protectionist measures are designed to revitalise domestic manufacturing and protect American jobs, industry leaders on both sides of the Atlantic warn that the new tariffs are likely to raise costs, strain supply chains, and destabilise already fragile international markets.

Adding to the confusion, reports suggest tariffs on some consumer electronics may be lifted – a move that could impact certain product categories within the shooting and outdoor sectors. With trade policy continuing to shift rapidly, UK businesses are being urged to proceed with caution.

Stephen Jolly, executive director of the UK’s Gun Trade Association (GTA), said: “The recent announcement of new US import tariffs has created significant unease in some portions of the UK trade.

“While the GTA does not take a position on political outcomes, we have formally stated our opposition to tariffs and our concern over the possibility of retaliatory measures. We have also responded to a government consultation on international trade, outlining our sector’s contributions to the economy and the risks posed by a hostile trading environment.

“As part of our response, I have written directly to the Secretary of State to express our industry’s concern about the imposition of a 10 percent tariff on

British exports to the United States. In that letter, I urged the government to avoid retaliatory measures that risk worsening the current situation and instead focus on securing a bilateral free trade agreement with the US administration. I also took the opportunity to highlight the contribution our sector makes to the UK economy – more than £3 billion annually and around 70,000 jobs across manufacturing, distribution, retail, and associated services.

“The GTA is committed to working with the government to protect and promote that prosperity. The US administration’s stance on tariffs is deeply ideological, aimed at protecting domestic production. But such policies can have unintended consequences for allies and trading partners. The UK gun trade may only be modest in size, but it contributes to the wider economy and supports skilled manufacturing, exports, and innovation. The effects of this trade friction are being felt beyond just the largest players.” Read Stephen Jolly’s full article on page 20. Tony Belas of Daystate offered a frank perspective on the uncertainty: “It’s hard to know what’s going to happen – the story changes every day. The reality is, if our importer has to pay an extra 10 percent, then our products become less competitive in the US, and that cost ultimately goes to the American consumer.

“There’s no real domestic alternative to what we offer in the US. You’ve got brands producing locally, but they’re aimed at the low-end mass market — we’re playing in a completely different league.” “Many so-called ‘Made in America’ products rely heavily on imported components — German barrels, Italian stocks, Chinese parts — so the price rises will impact the whole supply chain. The cost of domestically produced goods will go up too, because the materials aren’t domestic.” “The likely outcome? Less consumer spending. If wages stay flat and prices rise, people buy less. And when that happens across the board, it starts to feel like the early stages of a recession.” “For us, the US is an important market — but not our only one. If we lose a small percentage of our US sales, we can probably reallocate stock elsewhere. Middle Eastern markets, for example, are growing and may benefit from this shift.” “So no one here is panicking. We’re watching it all unfold — with a mix of concern and slight amusement. Maybe Trump is just shaking the tree. There are always winners and losers in these scenarios. If the American consumer loses out, someone else stands to gain.”

Paul Bradley, regional sales and portfolio director at Hexagon, part of Beretta Holdings, told GTI that the industry is already experiencing consequences: “We are already seeing ammunition deals cancelled due to American trade tariffs. In the short term this will cause a little pain... America has always been a tough market for Euro/UK producers as it is extremely price competitive... It was not the Utopian marketplace that many imagine for manufacturers outside of the U.S.”

Bradley noted that while the current situation is disruptive, it may encourage long-term investment in European manufacturing—particularly as defence customers begin to seek alternatives to US suppliers. However, he cautioned that in the near term, UK consumers may face price rises as availability tightens.